John Rymer at Forrester has a very interesting blog post from back in January about the future of Java. Oracle will definitely have an impact on the evolution of Java. I agree with Mr. Rymer that the impacts will be felt more in the long term and that Java is on the path to becoming a server side only language.
Oracle’s strategy for Java will change the Java ecosystem that has existed for 11 years.
- Oracle will direct Java innovation. Oracle has made it clear that from this point forward, it will direct all innovation in core Java (Java SE). Oracle will happily accept the contributions of others through OpenJDK as long as those contributions align with Oracle’s priorities.
- OpenJDK is not fully open. OpenJDK is covered by a General Public License (GPL), and though it’s certainly true that there are alternative JVM implementations and derivatives out there, OpenJDK is not open in spirit: It’s practically impossible to distribute an alternative implementation without Oracle’s sanction — specifically without a grant of the Java TCK. Losing The Apache Software Foundation as a supporter also hurts Oracle’s credibility as a partner with the Java alpha geeks who drive so much independent and discontinuous Java innovation. Those developers will take their energy elsewhere, probably to Apache projects.
- The JCP is dying. The Java Community Process remains in place, but we believe that Oracle will formulate an alternative that ends the fiction of JCP as an open process and streamlines the process of Java platform evolution. The result will be total domination of Java’s evolution by Oracle and IBM.
- Competition will shift to frameworks. With Oracle directing innovation at Java’s core, others in the Java ecosystem will focus on higher-level frameworks. This shift began years ago, but we now expect it to intensify. We expect most of the work on frameworks to focus on the enterprise, as that is clearly Oracle and its core partners’ focus with Java.
- Fewer young developers will learn Java first. One of Java’s greatest strengths has been the number of young developers who learn it as a first language. As Java becomes less and less of a client-side language, we expect to see educational institutions switch to other languages for primary education, ones with stronger client-side representation such as JavaScript and HTML 5. Over time, developers will begin to view Java as a server-side language for enterprises — like COBOL.
Read the entire post.
He does make some interesting points, however doesn’t address the fact that 33% of all smartphones use Java as their development language: Android.
Have to wait and see how the Oracle v Google lawsuit plays out.
Another healthy non-server Java community is Eclipse.
Both Eclipse and Android do share the attribute that they are frameworks outside of the control (for the most part) of Oracle.
I agree. There are a lot of vibrant communities outside of the Java standards community. But if all of them depend on Oracle to move forward quickly and Oracle decides its best interest lies in a different direction, how will that impact those communities?
Well, I don’t think I will miss Android but I certainly will miss Eclipse. It is the best IDE out there. I do all my python programming on it. I wonder how difficult would it be to recode it in another language?
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