Nothing is too low for a bear
A bear doesn’t probably love to chase and hunt their prey. They are fond of any sorts of flesh and easily pick you when you are asleep. Bears can be predators even though they don’t have many enemies. Although most do not, under normal circumstances, hunt and feed on humans. But you can’t stay asleep ignoring the severity of the bear attack. This is probably another representation of why bear markets are extremely risky trades. Risk comes from not knowing what you‘re doing, says Warren Buffet. Risks are like the air that is around us. You may risk yourself by breathing polluted air. Risks never sleep. You need to be a risk keeper and assess it.
Never ignore a slightest smell
Severity is the feeling of the disaster and it needs a quality decision which may take time to get through the process. You need to classify the severity properly else the result will create displeasure and inconvenience. We have to try best to avoid the lessons of ignoring the severity. Nokia, being risk-averse company ignored the severity of the smart-phones disturbing the market.
Ignorance is bliss
Probability can be an illusion to be ignored but it can be very devastating and tragic either to you or your company. If you see the risk that can likely to occur or less threatening without presenting the huge loss, you are in danger of facing the devastation. It may be unlikely to be the victim of the bear attack but it will cost your life.
The Risk Class
Assessment of risks assesses the quality of thoughts of the people. It helps us to learn how to behave differently towards different risks. Assessment of risk is made by combining the severity of consequence with the likelihood of the occurrence. This combination is called the Risk Priority Number (RPN). In my previous blog, I personally define Risk priority Number as Risk Class. You can read about risk class : https://blogs.perficient.com/2018/02/07/risk-blink-power-observation/
Severity can be simply assessed into High Risk as 3, Medium Risk as 2 and Low Risk as 1. Probability can be assessed into 100% certain as 4, above 50% probable as 3, between 25-50% likely as 2 and below 25% unlikely but notable as 1.
The risk can be clearly assessed with the concept of bear attack.
You try to hand over a fish close to the bear; there can be a certain probability of direct attack and high severity of an injury. The severity is definitely high and can be rated as 3. Since the probability of the severity is definitely certain, it can be assessed as 4. The risk priority number (RPN) / Risk Class can be clearly calculated as 12.
You can see other examples of assessing and reducing the impact of the risk. The severity of damage and loss varies on completely different occasions and possibilities.
How to be a Risk Keeper
First of all, everyone should be a safe risk keeper. As a risk keeper, you need to assess every risk movement before taking the right action steps because risks never sleep. Risks are invisible and vulnerable. Keep your eyes open and be a better risk keeper.
Now I believe you have forgotten another important event; Issue. If the risks never sleep, so are the issues sleeping dragons? Does an issue sleep or not? It is a very well known fact that the issue cannot become a risk. https://blogs.perficient.com/2018/09/09/an-issue-cannot-become-a-risk/
Hold that thought about the issue and wait for the news about the sleeping dragons.