Adobe Summit: Future Telling 2016

Tamara Gaffney, Principal Analyst Adobe Digital Index and R”Ray” Wang, Principal Analyst of Constellation research were ready to make predictions with their big data crystal ball. They took on a variety of topics……….. all digital marketing related of course.
Note: Big Data refers to the variety of events in the Marketing Cloud including Adobe Analytics.
Looking back:

  • in 2015 smartphone visits were up (No duh! right)
  • Media and entertain ment has a 36.6% uptick
  • Financial Services up 14.7%
  • Engagement and converston are still suffering
    • going down on smartphones and desktops
    • Conversion rates on smartphones are less than half of desktop

Where are they going

  • Tablets have flatlined but no more decline
  • Smartphones continue to go up. 7% in Jan 2012 to 29% in Jan 2016
  • Mobile OS visits are stable
    • approx 55% iOS
    • 45% Android slight creep up

Prediction: Tablets will come back at some point in time……….in the form of flexible screens
Screen size will continue to shift.  Don’t count on this remaining the same
Prediction: sales and traffic will creep back towards Android.  The Apple trade-in program is bad for Apple pass along use.  Also, Apple is starting to go down market and that has an impact.

App World

  • There is a steep drop off in app launches
  • Media, Finance, and Shopping are down
    • Hard to keep these apps in use.
    • Users have app overload
  • Many apps are not just mobile. Many are wifi mode. Media streaming for example
  • Shopping and Finance have more of a a mobile and smartphone set of use cases
  • Use cases drive this.  Content consumers spend more time. Transactions take less time

Prediction: Biometric authentication will overtake passwords by 2020. This is selfie, heartbeat, fingerprint.  Note: they don’t take into account privacy law that takes biometrics to NOT be a warrant needy tool.
Mobile Musts for marketers

  • Mobile is more than a device. It’s about designing experiences in motion
  • Make your app easy to authenticate across multiple channel
  • Think about channel ubiquity or what we call scenes and settings not omni-channel
  • Study what’s going on what’s going on in your Android and iOS base. You will see some interesting shifts including with Android and Samsung Pay


  • Search is a crutch for users
    • on mobile devices, there is 76% growth in search. It’s a “I hate typing”
  • More traffic is going mobile but……. that traffic is not worth as much to you
    • Revenue per visit for mobile was only 50 cents per visit.  So a smart phone is worth 41% less to Google
  • Adertising world is throwing more ads on pages…… yes we have all seen it

Prediction: By Gen Z awareness building marketing will be over.  It’s a millenial backlash against advertising messing up navigation on mobile. Ray noted that 12 and younger are trained to ignore the ads.
The advertising industry will need to figure out how to make ads count.  Ad bundling may help offset that.

  • Voice rocks our world
  • Share of digital anticpation
    • Google now 5%
      • Tamara doesn’t think Google in is the catbird seat.
    • Windows cortana 5%
    • Siri 5% Amazon
    • Echo 2% (most admired btw)
    • Facebook M 20%
      • Facebook volume has gone up.  People in the 30-50 demographic are going back to Facebook
  • This is an open battleground

Advertising Play
Awareness must tie back to brand promise
Future of Entertainment

  • TV everywhere has pickdd up.  17.4%
  • But kids are at 83% in Teens and Toons genre
    • This is quarter over quarter growth
    • Kids are watching youtube videos
  • Live TV other than sports and election coverage is dead
  • What are they using to watch tv
    • Apple TV is winning at 10%
    • But Roku is growing faster.  Roku put out a hi-definition box
  • Gaming is huge
    • League of legends MOBA is bigger than all other sports
    • Kids like to watch videos of games being played
  • Kids are content consumers and creators
    • They want more content faster

Prediction: Android OS TV’s will cut into Apple TV. It will change the game yet again.  Multi-channel will help drive this.  (Move from phone to home to travel)
Prediction: Context will be your new mantra.  It’s about engaging correctly where they are
If you put together these then you’ve  got good context

  1. Identity
  2. Time
  3. Location
  4. Weather

What to do

  1. Get a gaming strategy
  2. Gaming is the new advertising opportunity
  3. Expect a convergence of mobile and tv operating systems to shift engagement and consumptiong
  4. Contextually relevant content is the future

Future of “Stuff”
Showed a video. With content everywhere, there will be no channel.  You will surface content and apps in windows, stove tops, cars, walls, etc.
Internet of things received with joyful anticipation

  • 35% are looking forward to the IoT with smart devices interacting more contextually

Prediction: IoT will become mission critical
Prediction: IoT rollercoaster reaches a peak then takes a steep dive.  Nest with huge bakloas over product outage with baby monitors.  High tech cars facing greater reliability challenges.  See the drone wars.
Prediction: Bandwidth becomes a public utility.  Bandwidth demand will increase but providers are losing revenue. Prices for bandwidth will go up.  Content delivery and time may change.
Augmented and Virtual Reality

  • Oculus Rift was a big thing at South By Southwest
    • Still won’t come out for a bit.
  • In Utah, they opened a virtual reality gaming place called the void
    • Showed a promo video (below)

Prediction: VR impacts B2B, healthcare, and gaming first.
How to think about IoT

  • With iot think about scenes and settings and not channels
  • Value is the contextual insights to make better recommendations
  • AR and VR have both active and passive approaches to transform experience
  • Connectivity requires intention driven approach

What else?

Marketers cannot reassemble fractured identities on your own.  Customers have on average 7.2 devices but on average, a given site only sees 1.2 devices per month in logged in mode.
Prediction: 2016 will be your year of identity.  You want to map experiences and journeys. Identity allows it and users may allow you that information for the convenience. Of course, the battle for identity is everywhere. They all want a piece of your identity or owning that authentication.

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Michael Porter

Mike Porter leads the Strategic Advisors team for Perficient. He has more than 21 years of experience helping organizations with technology and digital transformation, specifically around solving business problems related to CRM and data.

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